Implications of Five Different Risk Models In Primary Prevention Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: A lack of consensus exists across guidelines as to which risk model should be used for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our objective was to determine potential improvements in the number needed to treat (NNT) and number of events prevented (NEP) using different risk models in patients eligible for risk stratification. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort was assembled from primary care patients in Ontario, Canada between January 1st, 2010, to December 31st, 2014 and followed for up to 5 years. Risk estimation was undertaken in patients 40-75 years of age, without CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), a recalibrated FRS (R-FRS), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2), and the low-risk region recalibrated SCORE2 (LR-SCORE2). RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 47,399 patients (59% women, mean age 54). The NNT with statins was lowest for SCORE2 at 40, followed by LR-SCORE2 at 41, R-FRS at 43, PCEs at 55, and FRS at 65. Models that selected for individuals with a lower NNT recommended statins to fewer, but higher risk patients. For instance, SCORE2 recommended statins to 7.9% of patients (5-year CVD incidence 5.92%). The FRS, however, recommended statins to 34.6% of patients (5-year CVD incidence 4.01%). Accordingly, the NEP was highest for the FRS at 406 and lowest for SCORE2 at 156. CONCLUSIONS: Newer models such as SCORE2 may improve statin allocation to higher risk groups with a lower NNT but prevent fewer events at the population level.

Days alive and out of hospital for adult female and male cardiac surgery patients: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research shows women experience higher mortality than men after cardiac surgery but information on sex-differences during postoperative recovery is limited. Days alive and out of hospital (DAH) combines death, readmission and length of stay, and may better quantify sex-differences during recovery. This main objective is to evaluate (i) how DAH at 30-days varies between sex and surgical procedure, (ii) DAH responsiveness to patient and surgical complexity, and (iii) longer-term prognostic value of DAH. METHODS: We evaluated 111,430 patients (26% female) who underwent one of three types of cardiac surgery (isolated coronary artery bypass [CABG], isolated non-CABG, combination procedures) between 2009 - 2019. Primary outcome was DAH at 30 days (DAH30), secondary outcomes were DAH at 90 days (DAH90) and 180 days (DAH180). Data were stratified by sex and surgical group. Unadjusted and risk-adjusted analyses were conducted to determine the association of DAH with patient-, surgery-, and hospital-level characteristics. Patients were divided into two groups (below and above the 10th percentile) based on the number of days at DAH30. Proportion of patients below the 10th percentile at DAH30 that remained in this group at DAH90 and DAH180 were determined. RESULTS: DAH30 were lower for women compared to men (22 vs. 23 days), and seen across all surgical groups (isolated CABG 23 vs. 24, isolated non-CABG 22 vs. 23, combined surgeries 19 vs. 21 days). Clinical risk factors including multimorbidity, socioeconomic status and surgical complexity were associated with lower DAH30 values, but women showed lower values of DAH30 compared to men for many factors. Among patients in the lowest 10th percentile at DAH30, 80% of both females and males remained in the lowest 10th percentile at 90 days, while 72% of females and 76% males remained in that percentile at 180 days. CONCLUSION: DAH is a responsive outcome to differences in patient and surgical risk factors. Further research is needed to identify new care pathways to reduce disparities in outcomes between male and female patients.

Evaluating Readability, Understandability, and Actionability of Online Printable Patient Education Materials for Cholesterol Management: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia management is a cornerstone in cardiovascular disease prevention and relies heavily on patient adherence to lifestyle modifications and medications. Numerous cholesterol patient education materials are available online, but it remains unclear whether these resources are suitable for the majority of North American adults given the prevalence of low health literacy. This review aimed to (1) identify printable cholesterol patient education materials through an online search, and (2) evaluate the readability, understandability, and actionability of each resource to determine its utility in practice. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched the MEDLINE database for peer-reviewed educational materials and the websites of Canadian and American national health organizations for gray literature. Readability was measured using the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level, and scores between fifth- and sixth-grade reading levels were considered adequate. Understandability and actionability were scored using the Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool and categorized as superior (>80%), adequate (50%-70%), or inadequate (<50%). Our search yielded 91 results that were screened for eligibility. Among the 22 educational materials included in the study, 15 were identified through MEDLINE, and 7 were from websites. The readability across all materials averaged an 11th-grade reading level (Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level=11.9±2.59). The mean±SD understandability and actionability scores were 82.8±6.58% and 40.9±28.60%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The readability of online cholesterol patient education materials consistently exceeds the health literacy level of the average North American adult. Many resources also inadequately describe action items for individuals to self-manage their cholesterol, representing an implementation gap in cardiovascular disease prevention.

Nuclear factor kappa B-dependent persistence of Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi in human macrophages.

Salmonella serovars Typhi and Paratyphi cause a prolonged illness known as enteric fever, whereas other serovars cause acute gastroenteritis. Mechanisms responsible for the divergent clinical manifestations of nontyphoidal and enteric fever Salmonella infections have remained elusive. Here, we show that S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A can persist within human macrophages, whereas S. Typhimurium rapidly induces apoptotic macrophage cell death that is dependent on Salmonella pathogenicity island 2 (SPI2). S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A lack 12 specific SPI2 effectors with pro-apoptotic functions, including nine that target nuclear factor κB (NF-κB). Pharmacologic inhibition of NF-κB or heterologous expression of the SPI2 effectors GogA or GtgA restores apoptosis of S. Typhi-infected macrophages. In addition, the absence of the SPI2 effector SarA results in deficient signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (STAT1) activation and interleukin 12 production, leading to impaired TH1 responses in macrophages and humanized mice. The absence of specific nontyphoidal SPI2 effectors may allow S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A to cause chronic infections. IMPORTANCE: Salmonella enterica is a common cause of gastrointestinal infections worldwide. The serovars Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A cause a distinctive systemic illness called enteric fever, whose pathogenesis is incompletely understood. Here, we show that enteric fever Salmonella serovars lack 12 specific virulence factors possessed by nontyphoidal Salmonella serovars, which allow the enteric fever serovars to persist within human macrophages. We propose that this fundamental difference in the interaction of Salmonella with human macrophages is responsible for the chronicity of typhoid and paratyphoid fever, suggesting that targeting the nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) complex responsible for macrophage survival could facilitate the clearance of persistent bacterial infections.

Approaches to Comparing the Impact of Socioeconomic Disadvantage on Acute Myocardial Infarction Care Within and Across Countries: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how cardiovascular disease treatment and outcomes differ for socioeconomically disadvantaged patients across countries may reveal insights into the impact of countries' policy initiatives on health equity. However, methods of undertaking these studies are poorly characterized. METHODS: We performed a scoping review to identify studies describing between-country comparisons of socioeconomic inequalities in the care of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We sought to determine the extent to which such comparisons have been conducted, the methodologies used, and outcomes assessed. We searched Medline from January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2023 for peer-reviewed English-language publications. Studies were included if they stratified patients by a measure of socioeconomic disadvantage (eg, race, ethnicity, income, education, occupation, immigrant status) and made comparisons between 2 or more countries. RESULTS: Our search yielded 4861 articles focused on patients with AMI, of which 7 met our inclusion criteria. Common individual-level proxies for disadvantage were self-reported income or education. In contrast, we found no cross-country comparisons focused on other measures of disadvantage such as race and ethnicity. There was marked heterogeneity in methods and thresholds used to define socioeconomic disadvantage at the individual level. All included studies found that patients with higher income and higher educational attainment had improved AMI outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Between-country comparisons of socioeconomic disparities in AMI outcomes are scarce and heterogeneous, but all identified studies relied on metrics of disadvantage including income and education that could be uniformly measured across countries. We found no articles addressing other types of inequities, likely because of significant methodologic challenges.

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Wait-Time Management: Derivation and Validation of the Canadian TAVI Triage Tool (CAN3T).

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has seen indication expansion and thus exponential growth in demand over the past decade. In many jurisdictions, the growing demand has outpaced capacity, increasing wait times and preprocedural adverse events. In this study, we derived prediction models that estimate the risk of adverse events on the waitlist and developed a triage tool to identify patients who should be prioritized for TAVI. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included adult patients in Ontario, Canada referred for TAVI and followed up until one of the following events first occurred: death, TAVI procedure, removal from waitlist, or end of the observation period. We used subdistribution hazards models to find significant predictors for each of the following outcomes: (1) all-cause death while on the waitlist; (2) all-cause hospitalization while on the waitlist; (3) receipt of urgent TAVI; and (4) a composite outcome. The median predicted risk at 12 weeks was chosen as a threshold for a maximum acceptable risk while on the waitlist and incorporated in the triage tool to recommend individualized wait times. Of 13 128 patients, 586 died while on the waitlist, and 4343 had at least 1 hospitalization. A total of 6854 TAVIs were completed, of which 1135 were urgent procedures. We were able to create parsimonious models for each outcome that included clinically relevant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The Canadian TAVI Triage Tool (CAN3T) is a triage tool to assist clinicians in the prioritization of patients who should have timely access to TAVI. We anticipate that the CAN3T will be a valuable tool as it may improve equity in access to care, reduce preventable adverse events, and improve system efficiency.

A single amino acid in the Salmonella effector SarA/SteE triggers supraphysiological activation of STAT3 for anti-inflammatory target gene expression.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica cause an estimated 1 million cases of gastroenteritis annually in the United States. These serovars use secreted protein effectors to mimic and reprogram host cellular functions. We previously discovered that the secreted effector SarA (Salmonella anti-inflammatory response activator; also known as SteE) was required for increased intracellular replication of S. Typhimurium and production of the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10). SarA facilitates phosphorylation of STAT3 through a region of homology with the host cytokine receptor gp130. Here, we demonstrate that a single amino acid difference between SarA and gp130 is critical for the anti-inflammatory bias of SarA-STAT3 signaling. An isoleucine at the pY+1 position of the YxxQ motif in SarA (which binds the SH2 domain in STAT3) causes increased STAT3 phosphorylation and expression of anti-inflammatory target genes. This isoleucine, completely conserved in ~4000 Salmonella isolates, renders SarA a better substrate for tyrosine phosphorylation by GSK-3. GSK-3 is canonically a serine/threonine kinase that nonetheless undergoes tyrosine autophosphorylation at a motif that has an invariant isoleucine at the pY+1 position. Our results provide a molecular basis for how a Salmonella secreted effector achieves supraphysiological levels of STAT3 activation to control host genes during infection.

Sex-Based Disparities in Acute Myocardial Infarction Treatment Patterns and Outcomes in Older Adults Hospitalized Across 6 High-Income Countries: An Analysis From the International Health Systems Research Collaborative.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences in acute myocardial infarction treatment and outcomes are well documented, but it is unclear whether differences are consistent across countries. The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemiology, use of interventional procedures, and outcomes for older females and males hospitalized with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in 6 diverse countries. METHODS: We conducted a serial cross-sectional cohort study of 1 508 205 adults aged ≥66 years hospitalized with STEMI and NSTEMI between 2011 and 2018 in the United States, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using administrative data. We compared females and males within each country with respect to age-standardized hospitalization rates, rates of cardiac catheterization, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery within 90 days of hospitalization, and 30-day age- and comorbidity-adjusted mortality. RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for STEMI and NSTEMI decreased between 2011 and 2018 in all countries, although the hospitalization rate ratio (rate in males/rate in females) increased in virtually all countries (eg, US STEMI ratio, 1.58:1 in 2011 and 1.73:1 in 2018; Israel NSTEMI ratio, 1.71:1 in 2011 and 2.11:1 in 2018). Rates of cardiac catheterization, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery were lower for females than males for STEMI in all countries and years (eg, US cardiac catheterization in 2018, 88.6% for females versus 91.5% for males; Israel percutaneous coronary intervention in 2018, 76.7% for females versus 84.8% for males) with similar findings for NSTEMI. Adjusted mortality for STEMI in 2018 was higher for females than males in 5 countries (the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Israel, and Taiwan) but lower for females than males in 5 countries for NSTEMI. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a larger decline in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations for females than males between 2011 and 2018. Females were less likely to receive cardiac interventions and had higher mortality after STEMI. Sex disparities seem to transcend borders, raising questions about the underlying causes and remedies.

Imprecision of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays at the female 99th-percentile.

BACKGROUND: An analytical benchmark for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) assays is to achieve a coefficient of variation (CV) of ≤ 10.0 % at the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) used for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction. Few prospective multicenter studies have evaluated assay imprecision and none have determined precision at the female URL which is lower than the male URL for all cardiac troponin assays. METHODS: Human serum and plasma matrix samples were constructed to yield hs-cTn concentrations near the female URLs for the Abbott, Beckman, Roche, and Siemens hs-cTn assays. These materials were sent (on dry ice) to 35 Canadian hospital laboratories (n = 64 instruments evaluated) participating in a larger clinical trial, with instructions for storage, handling, and monthly testing over one year. The mean concentration, standard deviation, and CV for each instrument type and an overall pooled CV for each manufacturer were calculated. RESULTS: The CVs for all individual instruments and overall were ≤ 10.0 % for two manufacturers (Abbott CVpooled = 6.3 % and Beckman CVpooled = 7.0 %). One of four Siemens Atellica instruments yielded a CV > 10.0 % (CVpooled = 7.7 %), whereas 15 of 41 Roche instruments yielded CVs > 10.0 % at the female URL of 9 ng/L used worldwide (6 cobas e411, 1 cobas e601, 4 cobas e602, and 4 cobas e801) (CVpooled = 11.7 %). Four Roche instruments also yielded CVs > 10.0 % near the female URL of 14 ng/L used in the United States (CVpooled = 8.5 %). CONCLUSIONS: The number of instruments achieving a CV ≤ 10.0 % at the female 99th-percentile URL varies by manufacturer and by instrument. Monitoring assay precision at the female URL is necessary for some assays to ensure optimal use of this threshold in clinical practice.

Determinants, Prevention, and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease Among Immigrant and Refugee Populations.

Immigration policies shape the composition, socioeconomic characteristics, and health of migrant populations. The health of migrants is also influenced by a confluence of social, economic, environmental, and political factors. Immigrants and refugees often face various barriers to accessing health care because of factors such as lack of familiarity with navigating the health care system, language barriers, systemic racism, and gaps in health insurance. Social determinants of health and access to primary care health services likely influence the burden of cardiovascular risk factors among immigrants. The relatively low burden of many cardiovascular risk factors in many immigrant populations likely contributes to the generally lower incidence rates of acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke in immigrants compared with nonimmigrants, although cardiovascular disease incidence rates vary substantially by country of origin. The "healthy immigrant effect" is the hypothesis that immigrants to high-income countries, such as Canada, are healthier than nonimmigrants in the host population. However, this effect may not apply universally across all immigrants, including recent refugees, immigrants without formal education, and unmarried immigrants. As unfolding sociopolitical events generate new waves of global migration, policymakers and health care providers need to focus on addressing social and structural determinants of health to better manage cardiovascular risk factors and prevent cardiovascular disease, especially among the most marginalized immigrants and refugees.

Validation of the European SCORE2 models in a Canadian primary care cohort.

AIMS: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Model 2 (SCORE2) was recently developed to predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Europe. Whether these models could be used outside of Europe is not known. The objective of this study was to test the validity of SCORE2 in a large Canadian cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A primary care cohort of persons with routinely collected electronic medical record data from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014, in Ontario, Canada, was used for validation. The SCORE2 models for younger persons (YP) were applied to 57 409 individuals aged 40-69 while the models for older persons (OPs) were applied to 9885 individuals 70-89 years of age. Five-year ASCVD predictions from both the uncalibrated and low-risk region recalibrated SCORE2 models were evaluated. The C-statistic for SCORE2-YP was 0.74 in women and 0.69 in men. The uncalibrated SCORE2-YP overestimated risk by 17% in women and underestimated by 2% in men. In contrast, the low-risk region recalibrated model demonstrated worse calibration, overestimating risk by 100% in women and 36% in men. The C-statistic for SCORE2-OP was 0.64 and 0.62 in older women and men, respectively. The uncalibrated SCORE2-OP overestimated risk by more than 100% in both sexes. The low-risk region recalibrated model demonstrated improved calibration but still overestimated risk by 60% in women and 13% in men. CONCLUSION: The performance of SCORE2 to predict ASCVD risk in Canada varied by age group and depended on whether regional calibration was applied. This underscores the necessity for validation assessment of SCORE2 prior to implementation in new jurisdictions.

In this study, new tools [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Model 2 (SCORE2)] that were developed across Europe to predict heart attack and stroke risk in healthy individuals were tested independently for the first time in a Canadian setting. Key findings are as follows:The accuracy of predictions from SCORE2 in Canadians depends on the age group considered and whether uncalibrated or recalibrated equations are being used.Independent assessment of tools such as SCORE2 remains useful prior to widespread implementation in new jurisdictions.

Trajectories of P2Y12 inhibitor adherence in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

PURPOSE: P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i) reduce cardiac events after acute coronary syndromes (ACS). However, suboptimal P2Y12i adherence persists. We aimed to examine P2Y12i non-adherence using group-based trajectory methods and to identify adherence predictors. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study using administrative data in Ontario, Canada of patients ≥65 years admitted for ACS between April 2014 and March 2018 with a P2Y12i dispensed within 7 days of discharge. We used group-based trajectory models to characterize longitudinal 1-year adherence patterns. Predictors associated with each adherence trajectory were identified by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: We included 11 917 patients using clopidogrel and 9763 using ticagrelor, aged [mean ± SD]: 77.33 ± 8.31/73.59 ± 6.79 years; men: 56.2%/65.4%, respectively. We identified 3 longitudinal adherence trajectories, that differed by agent: 75% of clopidogrel and 68% of ticagrelor patients showed a consistently adherent trajectory, while 13%/17% were gradually, and 12%/15% were rapidly non-adherent, respectively (p < 0.001). Differing baseline characteristics in each cohort were associated with observed adherence trajectories. Concomitant atrial fibrillation and prior bleeding history were associated with non-adherence among clopidogrel users. Among ticagrelor users, women and older persons were more likely to be rapidly non-adherent, adherence declining steeply starting 1 month post-ACS. CONCLUSIONS: We identified distinct adherence trajectories for clopidogrel and ticagrelor post-ACS, with 3 out of 4 clopidogrel patients but only 2 out of 3 ticagrelor patients in the consistently adherent trajectory. Intensive interventions targeted to the period of steep adherence decline post-ACS, particularly for women and older persons initiating ticagrelor, and patients with atrial fibrillation on clopidogrel should be considered and investigated further.

The Relationship Between Residential Mobility and Mortality Following Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which residential mobility is associated with declining health among disease-specific populations, such as survivors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), remains unknown. METHODS: This prospective cohort study consisted of 3377 patients followed from index AMI (December 1, 1999 to March 30, 2003) to death or the last available follow-up date (March 30, 2020) in Ontario, Canada. Each residential postal code move from a patient's sentinel AMI event was tracked. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards examined the associated impact of each residential postal code move on mortality after adjusting for age, sex, baseline socioeconomic, psychosocial factors, changes in neighbourhood income level from each residential move, preexisting cardiovascular and noncardiovascular illnesses, and rural residence. All models evaluated death and long-term care institutionalisation as competing risks to distinguish mortality from other end-of-life destination outcomes among community-dwelling populations. RESULTS: The study sample included 3369 patients with 1828 (54.3%) having at least 1 residential move throughout the study; 86.5% of patients either died in the community or moved from a community dwelling into a long-term care facility as an end-of-life destination. When adjusted for baseline factors and changing neighbourhood socioeconomic status over time, each residential move was associated with a 12% higher rate of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.19; P < 0.001) and a 26% higher rate of long-term care end-of-life institutionalisation (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.58; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Residential mobility was associated with higher mortality after AMI. Further research is needed to better evaluate intermediary causal pathways that may explain why residential mobility is associated with end-of-life outcomes.

Stroke risk in women with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Female sex is associated with higher rates of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF) after adjustment for other CHA2DS2-VASc factors. This study aimed to describe sex differences in age and cardiovascular care to examine their relationship with stroke hazard in AF. METHODS: Population-based cohort study using administrative datasets of people aged ≥66 years diagnosed with AF in Ontario between 2007 and 2019. Cause-specific hazard regression was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for stroke associated with female sex over a 2-year follow-up. Model 1 included CHA2DS2-VASc factors, with age modelled as 66-74 vs. ≥ 75 years. Model 2 treated age as a continuous variable and included an age-sex interaction term. Model 3 further accounted for multimorbidity and markers of cardiovascular care. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 354 254 individuals with AF (median age 78 years, 49.2% female). Females were more likely to be diagnosed in emergency departments and less likely to receive cardiologist assessments, statins, or LDL-C testing, with higher LDL-C levels among females than males. In Model 1, the adjusted HR for stroke associated with female sex was 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.21-1.32). Model 2 revealed a significant age-sex interaction, such that female sex was only associated with increased stroke hazard at age >70 years. Adjusting for markers of cardiovascular care and multimorbidity further decreased the HR, so that female sex was not associated with increased stroke hazard at age ≤80 years. CONCLUSION: Older age and inequities in cardiovascular care may partly explain higher stroke rates in females with AF.

Development and Validation of the CANHEART Population-Based Laboratory Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in primary prevention assessments exclusively with laboratory results may facilitate automated risk reporting and improve uptake of preventive therapies. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate sex-specific prediction models for ASCVD using age and routine laboratory tests and compare their performance with that of the pooled cohort equations (PCEs). DESIGN: Derivation and validation of the CANHEART (Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team) Lab Models. SETTING: Population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: A derivation and internal validation cohort of adults aged 40 to 75 years without cardiovascular disease from April 2009 to December 2015; an external validation cohort of primary care patients from January 2010 to December 2014. MEASUREMENTS: Age and laboratory predictors measured in the outpatient setting included serum total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, platelets, leukocytes, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and glucose. The ASCVD outcomes were defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, and death from ischemic heart or cerebrovascular disease within 5 years. RESULTS: Sex-specific models were developed and internally validated in 2 160 497 women and 1 833 147 men. They were well calibrated, with relative differences less than 1% between mean predicted and observed risk for both sexes. The c-statistic was 0.77 in women and 0.71 in men. External validation in 31 697 primary care patients showed a relative difference less than 14% and an absolute difference less than 0.3 percentage points in mean predicted and observed risks for both sexes. The c-statistics for the laboratory models were 0.72 for both sexes and were not statistically significantly different from those for the PCEs in women (change in c-statistic, -0.01 [95% CI, -0.03 to 0.01]) or men (change in c-statistic, -0.01 [CI, -0.04 to 0.02]). LIMITATION: Medication use was not available at the population level. CONCLUSION: The CANHEART Lab Models predict ASCVD with similar accuracy to more complex models, such as the PCEs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.